SUSTAINABLE BALOKO INDUSTRY IN SORSOGON: A POLICY FORMULATION USING FUTURES THINKING APPROACH

Abstract

This paper analyzed the causes leading to the decline of Pen Shell (Atrina pectina) production in Sorsogon using Futures Thinking Foresight tools such as causal layered analysis. Likewise, using scenario development, this paper identified alternative futures for the Baloko industry in Sorsogon. Backcasting was also utilized to formulate policies and programs towards attaining this desired future. From these alternatives, an ideal future was selected and pursued. Using an exploratory qualitative method, this study purposively interviewed three informants who were directly connected with the Baloko industry in the province. Based on the causal layered analysis, results indicated that the province and its people are losing hope for its future sustainability due to sociocultural, technological, economic, ecological/environmental, and political issues.  Also, based on the scenario development and backcasting results showed that using the top two drivers in this scenario development stage, four scenarios were identified by the year 2040. Hence, the paper recommended the proposed policy for the establishment of a Provincial Center for Baloko Production by 2040. The center shall be housed at Sorsogon State University. This center aims to lead the path to an idealized future by 2040 where the Baloko industry is fully sustainable.